CD-LINKS Scenario Database (version 1.0):

Introduction to CD-LINKS

The CD-LINKS project is exploring the complex interplay between climate action and development, while simultaneously taking both global and national perspectives and thereby informing the design of complementary climate-development policies. The CD-LINKS consortium brings together national and global integrated assessment modeling groups from Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia, Japan and the USA as well as domain experts in the areas of human development, climate adaptation, economics, energy geo-politics, atmospheric chemistry, human health, land use, agriculture, and water. CD-LINKS has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 642147.

Scenario Design

The CD-LINKS consortium has developed a set of consistent national and global low-carbon development pathways that take current national policies and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as an entry point for short-term climate action and then transition to long-term goals of 1.5 and 2°C as defined by the Paris Agreement. These climate policy scenarios are also used as a basis to explore synergies and trade-offs between multiple sustainable development objectives. Table 1 below provides a brief overview of the scenarios used in this analysis which are in some more detail described below the table. 		 

Table 1: Overview of the scenarios developed under the umbrella of the CD-LINKS project.
  1. NoPolicy (global) or NoPOL (national)
    Baseline scenario without climate policy
  2. NPi
    National Policies until 2030, equivalent effort relative to the NoPolicy scenario after 2030
  3. INDCi
    National Policies until 2020, after which implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) until 2025/2030
  4. NPi2020_1600
    National Policies until 2020, as of 2020 staying within 1600 GtCO₂ budget for 2011-2100 period, corresponding to a >50% chance of staying below 2°C throughout 21st century
  5. NPi2020_1000
    National Policies until 2020, as of 2020 staying within 1000 GtCO₂ budget for 2011-2100 period, corresponding to a >66% chance of staying below 2°C throughout 21st century
  6. NPi2020_400
    National Policies until 2020, as of 2020 staying within 400 GtCO₂ budget for 2011-2100 period, corresponding to a >66% chance of staying below 1.5°C in 2100
  7. NPi2020_high
    National Policies until 2020, as of 2020 staying within a national CO₂ budget determined in a discourse between national and global teams
  8. NPi2020_low
    National Policies until 2020, as of 2020 staying within a stringent national CO₂ budget determined in a discourse between national and global teams

A baseline or reference scenario without any climate policy, called NoPolicy (for global models) or NoPOL (for national models) scenario, has been designed as a counterfactual to compare the effects of the policy scenarios with. Therefore, results might also deviate from other scenarios (and statistics) in 2010 or 2015.

The starting point for the NPi scenario is a policy database containing climate, energy and development policies in G20 countries with a cut-off year of 2015. IAMs implemented these policies to the degree the models allow representing them directly. Some policy targets were translated into high impact indicators (e.g., final energy reduction) using the IMAGE model to enable implementation in models with different sector representation. Ultimately up to 80% of the high impact policies for the sixteen G20 economies were implemented in the IAMs. For a detailed description of the modeling protocol including a list of the individual policies (see link). For the time after 2030 equivalent effort, defined as a constant emission reduction relative to a counterfactual scenario that excludes current policies (the so-called NoPolicy scenario), was assumed.

The INDCi scenario is based on information on GHG reduction targets and additional energy and land use policies from Kitous, et al. (2016), den Elzen, et al. (2016) and for land use estimates on Grassi and Dentener (2015) and information from the UNFCCC. NDC targets of G20 countries are generally defined in terms of GHG emission reductions. As pointed out in previous studies (e.g., Rogelj et al. 2016a; Rogelj et al., 2017 and references therein), there is ambiguity regarding the interpretation of NDC targets, leading to larger range of projected emission levels by 2030. For example, the NDCs for China and India include GHG intensity targets, renewable targets and forestry measures, which could not be translated into specific GHG emission levels.

Based on the NPi scenario, a set of long-term climate stabilization scenarios was constructed. It is implementing national policies until 2020 and then transition towards CO₂ budgets of 1600, 1000 and 400 GtCO₂ to achieve long-term temperature goals of different stringency.

The NPi2020_1600 assumes implementation of national policies until 2020 and cost-effective mitigation measures after 2020 to stay within the carbon budget of 1,600 GtCO₂ for the period 2011-2100. This is in line with the carbon budgets that would limit global warming below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels with at least 50% probability (Luderer et al., 2018) during the entire course of the 21st century. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases are assumed to be regulated with the same stringency in terms of the applied CO₂eq emissions pricing.

The NPi2020_1000 scenario assumes implementation of national policies until 2020 and cost-effective mitigation measures after 2020 to stay within the carbon budget of 1,000 GtCO₂ for the period 2011-2100. This is in line with the carbon budgets that would limit global warming below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels with at least 66% probability (Luderer et al., 2018, Rogelj et al., 2016b) during the entire course of the 21st century. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases are assumed to be regulated with the same stringency in terms of the applied CO₂eq emissions pricing.

The NPi2020_400 scenario implements national policies until 2020 and starts with cost-effective deep mitigation measures thereafter. It explores the effort necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C with 66% probability by the end of the 21st century (in 2100), keeping cumulative carbon emissions within 400 GtCO₂ for the period 2011-2100 (Luderer et al., 2018). During the 21st century this probability is generally lower than 66%, corresponding to a temperature overshoot.

Following the implementation of current policies to 2020, national models implemented country-specific CO₂ budgets that were determined in a discourse between national and global modeling teams taking into account regionalized budget estimates from global cost-effective pathways with a 1600, 1000 or 400 GtCO₂ cumulative budget (assuming that emissions reductions after 2020 are made where they are cheapest) as well as national objectives and capabilities for implementing mid-century emissions strategies. The NPi2020_high and NPi2020_low scenarios assume implementation of current national policies until 2020, after which progressing towards a higher NPi2020_1600 or lower, i.e. more stringent, (NPi2020_low) CO₂ budget target level is made.

The following table maps the scenario identifiers used in this database to the scenario names used in individual publications that present analysis of the CD-LINKS scenario set (if a given scenario was actually used in the publication).

Table 2: Mapping of scenario identifiers (IDs) used in the CD-LINKS scenario database to scenario names used in the journal articles that analyze the set of scenarios.
Database ID NoPolicy NPi INDCi NPi2020_1600 NPi2020_1000 NPi2020_400 NPi2020_high NPi2020_low
McCollum et al. 2018 - CPol NDC - 2°C 1.5°C 2°C (GCAM-USA) 1.5°C (GCAM-USA)

Recommended Citation

Version 1.0 of the CD-LINKS Scenario Database documents the scenarios underlying the analysis presented in McCollum et al. 2018. Therefore, when using any scenarios from CD-LINKS, please use McCollum et al. 2018 as the standard reference. Please note that the recommended citation will change in future with further scenarios and information being added to the data set.

Releases

The table below contains a list of the different versions of the CD-LINKS Scenario Database and which updates have been released since its first publication. Users that have registered and downloaded the full data set via the Download tab, will be notified via e-mail in case of future updates.

Version Date Change Publications
1.0 10/01/2018 CD-LINKS Scenario Database made public McCollum et al. 2018

References

  1. Den Elzen et al. 2016
    den Elzen M, Admiraal A, Roelfsema M, van Soest H, Hof AF, Forsell N (2016) Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals. Climatic Change 137:655-665. 10.1007/s10584-016-1700-7
  2. Grassi and Dentener 2015
    Grassi G, Dentener F (2015) Quantifying the contribution of the land use sector to the Paris Climate Agreement. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability.
  3. Kitous et al. 2016
    Kitous A, Keramidas K, Vandyck T, Saveyn B (2016) GECO 2016: Global energy and climate outlook: Road from Paris: Impact of climate policies on global energy markets in the context of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. European Commission, Joint Research Centre.
  4. Luderer et al. 2018
    Luderer G, Vrontisi Z, Bertram C, Edelenbosch OY, Pietzcker RC, Rogelj J, De Boer HS, Drouet L, Emmerling J, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Havlik P, Iyer G, Keramidas K, Kitous A, Pehl M, Krey V, Riahi K, Saveyn B, Tavoni M, Van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E (2018) Residual fossil CO₂ emissions in 1.5‐2°C pathways. Nature Climate Change 8:626-633. 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6
  5. McCollum et al. 2018
    McCollum DL, Zhou W, Bertram C, de Boer H-S, Bosetti V, Busch S, Despres J, Drouet L, Emmerling J, Fay M, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Gidden M, Harmsen M, Huppmann D, Iyer G, Krey V, Kriegler E, Nicolas C, Pachauri S, Parkinson S, Poblete-Cazenave M, Rafaj P, Rao N, Rozenberg J, Schmitz A, Schoepp W, van Vuuren D, Riahi K (2018) Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Energy 3:589-599. 10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z
  6. Rogelj et al. 2016a
    Rogelj J, Den Elzen M, Hoehne N, Fransen T, Fekete H, Winkler H, Schaeffer R, Sha F, Riahi K, Meinshausen M (2016) Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C. Nature 534:631-639. 10.1038/nature18307
  7. Rogelj et al. 2016b
    Rogelj J, Schaeffer M, Friedlingstein P, Gillett NP, van Vuuren DP, Riahi K, Allen M, Knutti R (2016) Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled. Nature Clim. Change 6:245-252. 10.1038/nclimate2868
  8. Rogelj et al. 2017
    Rogelj J, Fricko O, Meinshausen M, Krey V, Zilliacus JJJ, Riahi K (2017) Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties. Nature Communications 8. 10.1038/ncomms15748

Region definitions

The consolitated results in the database are shown at regional aggregations of the World, five macro regions and several individual countries/regions that are commonly used in scenario analysis. These regions are defined as follows:

Aggregation on the five region level

OECD90+EU = Includes the OECD 1990 countries as well as EU members and candidates.
Albania, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Fiji, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Germany, Greece, Guam, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Macedonia, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Samoa, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America, Vanuatu

REF = Countries from the Reforming Ecomonies of the Former Soviet Union.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan

ASIA = The region includes most Asian countries with the exception of the Middle East, Japan and Former Soviet Union states.
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, China Hong Kong SAR, China Macao SAR, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, East Timor, India, Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Viet Nam

MAF = This region includes the countries of the Middle East and Africa.
Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Reunion, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Syrian Arab Republic, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Republic of Tanzania, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe

LAM = This region includes the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Mexico, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela

A short tutorial on the use of the database

A short tutorial on the use of the online database is provided below.
If you experience technical problems with this database, please contact the CDLINKS Database Administrator.

The Navigation tabs

At the upper end of the browser window five navigation tabs can be found that provide different functionality of the web database. These five tabs are described in more detail in the following section.

About tab

The About tab provides information about the database and gives instructions on how to use the database. With exception of the About tab which can be viewed without special permissions, all other tabs require a valid user account (login and password) for the database. After entering the credentials the four additional tabs to navigate the database can be accessed. Which scenarios can be viewed depends on the individual user permissions (see User account). The difference between these three tabs for viewing is the way how scenario data can be combined for viewing.

Common Features of the Sectors, Series, and Scatter tabs

In all three view tabs the following selections can be made in the navigation bars on the upper left-hand side of the browser window:

(1.) Regions: In the upper left area of the screen is a field named Regions. Depending on the tab (see above) you may select one or multiple regions for which the data is shown on the screen. Generally the regions are organized in the two folders Compare and Model Name. While in the Compare folder you can find regions that are (approximately) defined across many models (World, five macro regions and seven countries commonly compared in modeling comparison exercises, see Region definitions), the Model name folder contains the native regions that you report to the database.

(2.) Scenarios: This field includes the list of scenarios from which one or more scenarios can be selected. In addition to scenarios, for a number of variables historical and base year data can be shown to compare with scenario results. Note that historical data is only available for the regions in the Compare folder (see also previous paragraph) and that currently only some emission and energy variables are covered. Further, displaying historical data is at the moment restricted to the Sectors tab.

(3.) Variables: In this field the variables can be selected for which the data is shown on the screen. Note that in the Sectors tab it is necessary to not only required to tick one or multiple variables for selection, but also to mark a variable name (highlighted in blue) for the graph on the right hand side to be updated. It is not important which variable or variable category is marked to initiate the graph update.

The Chart Preview on the upper right-hand side of the browser window shows the graph of the selected data (variable + scenarios + regions). In addition, the horizontally oriented Query Results area in the middle of the screen shows the data in tabular format.

It is possible to export the data either into Excel or two different graphical formats (PNG = portable network graphics, SVG = scalable vector graphics). In order to do so, select one of the options in the Output Options window at the bottom of the browser window. The field titled Notes shows additional information or explanatory text for the selected variables. The availability of notes is still under development and ultimate the contents will depend on input from modeling teams.

Frequently Asked Questions regarding Data Use

  • Am I permitted to use the scenario data for scientific research or science communication, like creating figures, tables or analysis based on the data?
    Yes. We encourage wide use of the scenario ensemble to better understand pathways of the CD-LINKS scenario analysis.
     
  • Am I permitted to adapt and modify the scenario ensemble data?
    Yes. We encourage that the scenario ensemble is used for research and science communication, and you are permitted to share selected parts of the scenario ensemble together with your adapted material.
    For example, if you derive statistical indicators from certain data, it is permitted to share these indicators in any way, and you may include the original data as well, as long as this only includes a limited number of data from the ensemble.
     
  • Am I permitted to share (parts of) the scenario ensemble data and/or any adaptations and modified material?
    The license grants you the right to make available selected parts of the scenario ensemble data, for example by using the data in figures, online visualization tools, or tables. However, it is not allowed to republish (i.e., make available for download or otherwise distribute) a substantial portion of the scenario ensemble data without written permission from the CD-LINKS consortion cordinated by IIASA. In cases where making available a substantial portion of the data is required, please include a link to the CD-LINKS Scenario Database available at db1.ene.iiasa.ac.at/CDLINKSDB instead of republishing the data.
     
  • What is a "substantial portion" of a scenario ensemble?
    There is no legal specification of this term - but we interpret it in the sense that a substantial portion would be any part of the data including more than a few timeseries (i.e., variables or indicators), or more than a few scenarios if more variables are included for each scenario.
    For example, using all data for almost all scenarios, but only selecting the global level of reporting, would constitute a substantial portion.
     
  • I really do need to share or republish a substantial portion of the scenario ensemble data…
    Please contact us at CDLINKS database admin and we will do our best to accommodate your request.
     

Why did we choose this license?

We are committed to making the scenario ensemble available as widely as possible, and to encourage broad use of the data for research, science communication and policy analysis in the context of CD-LINKS project. We want to facilitate the dialogue on pathways at the interface between science and policy, and we aim to support a better understanding of the scientific basis of the CD-LINKS project by releasing this scenario ensemble.

Nevertheless, a series of updates of the scenario ensemble is planned to be released, comprising both additional variables for existing scenarios and new scenarios from a range of national and global models. In addition, in case we identify reporting issues after the initial release we would like ot notify users about these issues and notify them about the corrections. While we did take the utmost care to validate all submitted data, such issues can never be fully avoided.

For this reason, we request that downloads of scenario data are routed through the CD-LINKS Scenario Database at db1.ene.iiasa.ac.at/CDLINKSDB, unless the data is made available in relation to a specific figure or table in a publication or online visualization tool, for example as supplementary material to a manuscript published in a scientific journal.

We will inform registered users of the scenario ensemble about data updates or any other relevant news.

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Changes compared to the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License

The items in Section 2(a)(1) were changed from:
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to:
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The following paragraph was added at the end of Section 2(a)(1):

For the avoidance of doubt: The data contained in the Licensed Material are subject to regular updates by the Licensor. For this reason, the reproduction of a substantial portion of the Licensed Material is prohibited; instead a reference or hyperlink to the repository or distribution of the Licensed Material should be given where necessary.

The introduction of Section 3(a)1 was changed from:

  1. If You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]
to:
  1. If You Share any part of the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]

The first item of Section 4 was changed from:

  1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;
to:
  1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share contents of the database as long as the Shared contents do not include a substantial part of the Licensed Material;

Privacy Policy

This privacy policy sets out how IIASA uses and protects any information that you give IIASA when you use this database. IIASA is committed to ensuring that your privacy is protected. Should we ask you to provide certain information by which you can be identified when using this website, then you can be assured that it will only be used in accordance with this privacy statement. IIASA may change this policy from time to time by updating this page. You should check this page from time to time to ensure that you are happy with any changes. This policy is effective from 17 June 2014. IIASA collects the following information:

  • Name
  • E-mail address
  • Details of the datasets downloaded
We require this information to understand your needs and provide you with a better service, and in particular for the following reasons:
  • Internal record keeping
  • To notify you if a downloaded dataset has been updated.
We are committed to ensuring that your information is secure. In order to prevent unauthorized access or disclosure, we have put in place suitable physical, electronic and managerial procedures to safeguard and secure the information we collect online.

Disclaimer

Liability

With respect to information available from this website, neither IIASA nor any of its employees make any warranty, expressed or implied, including warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, nor does IIASA assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, product, or process disclosed.
The software is provided on an 'as is' basis and IIASA disclaims all liability of any kind arising out of the use, or inability to use, the databases and all information and data contained within them. Parts of the website or the underlying database might be extended, changed or partly or completely deleted by IIASA without further announcement.
Views or opinions expressed on this website do not necessarily represent those of IIASA, its National Member Organizations, or other supporting institutions

Referrals and links

This website may contain advice, opinions and statements from external websites. Hyperlinks to non-IIASA Internet sites do not imply any official endorsement of, or responsibility for, the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations nor guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to other sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

CD-LINKS Scenario Database, 2018
Available at: https://db1.ene.iiasa.ac.at/CDLINKSDB

Responsible for this page: CDLINKS Database Administrator